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The NFL draft starts Thursday night, and during the coverage you’ll probably hear about safe and risky picks. In some cases, the risk is specific to the player. Perhaps Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is a risk for his history of alleged off-the-field misconduct, while his counterpart at Oregon, Marcus Mariota, comes with worries that his stock was inflated by the Ducks’ spread offense. But some of the risk is also considered intrinsic to certain positions, while other positions carry a reputation for being particularly low-risk.The trouble, though, is that there’s no way to prove which positions consistently offer good returns on draft investment — at least not with football data in its current state. And in large part, that’s because we can’t really evaluate on player performance as accurately for the so-called non-skill positions.For instance, taking a quarterback (like Winston and Mariota) might seem like a hazardous bet to make early in the draft. But it’s possible that QBs only appear risky relative to other positions because we can more readily measure a quarterback’s performance statistically. In other words, when Ryan Leaf posts a 39.0 quarterback rating as a rookie, he’s easy to identify as a bust, but his linebacking equivalent might be harder to recognize.Here’s another example. You could use Pro-Football-Reference’s Approximate Value (AV) to estimate the odds that a player’s performance1We’re looking at the first five seasons of a player’s career. will live up to the expectations of where he was drafted, and break those numbers down by position:You’d find that the average offensive lineman2Weighted by the expected value of the pick, so that successful high picks are rewarded more — and highly-touted disappointments are more heavily penalized. meets or exceeds the median AV expected of his draft slot about 59 percent of the time — the NFL-wide average across all positions is, by definition, 50 percent — while the average receiver3Lumping together wide receivers and tight ends. provides positive value for his pick slot only 41 percent of the time. And quarterbacks wouldn’t be far behind receivers on the “risky” list, beating expectations at a rate of only 43 percent.But there’s another clear pattern in the AV data: The positions that seem like the riskiest picks are also the ones where we have the most data to differentiate between good and bad performances. Coincidence? Probably not.An offensive lineman’s AV is based solely on his team’s offensive performance, his own playing time and any accolades he receives (like Pro Bowl or All-Pro nods). So, short of being outright benched, there’s very little he could do to distinguish himself negatively under the structure of the study above (or those like it). A skill-position player struggling to meet expectations, on the other hand, can be identified via his inferior yardage, touchdowns, turnovers and the like. (To the extent that those metrics are even good descriptors of player performance.)It’s similar to the phenomenon that causes linemen to boast a far higher Pro Bowl “retention rate” than other offensive positions, particularly quarterbacks. The less information voters have to go on, the more they rely on a player’s priors (and perhaps rightly so). And the same can go for the draft, where certain positions can feel safer simply because we don’t have glaring, easily-quantifiable evidence to the contrary.The answer, of course, is more data. When Chase Stuart conducted a more granular (if anecdotal) look at offensive tackles using ProFootballFocus grades, for instance, he found what seems to be a healthy bust rate even for a position often tagged as one of the most reliable. Then again, PFF grades aren’t universally accepted as gospel, either; besides, they only go back to the 2007 season (as opposed to 1950 for AV).That’s why, for now at least, it may not be possible to truly say whether certain positions are more or less likely to live up to their draft-day expectations. It’s another unanswerable question to throw onto the pile of things about the NFL draft that we just don’t know. read more

first_imgA schoolboy was allegedly beaten to death at Bokchara intersection in Sadar upazila of Satkhira following dispute over a trifling matter on Tuesday night, reports UNB.The deceased is Shakib Hossain, 16, a class-X student of Satkhira Police Lines School and son of Nazrul Islam, a constable of police at Kalaroa police station and resident of Palashpol Boubazar area of the district town.Abdul Quader and Shanto hailing from Kamalnagar Colony locked into a brawl with Shakib and his two friends – Rashed and Ami – at a mahfil held at Bokchara Madrasa ground at night.Later, the duo along with others swooped on Shakib and his friends with sticks at Bokchara intersection around 10.30pm while they were returning home, leaving them critically injured, said Maruf Ahmed, officer-in-charge of Sadar police station.Locals rushed them to Satkhira Sadar Hospital where doctors declared Shakib dead.Soon after the incident, police detained six people in this connection for interrogation, said Hasan, assistant sub-inspector of the police station.last_img read more

first_imgEvery year, Bollywood sees a plethora of movie releases and this year is no different for the film industry. Hundreds of Bollywood films are set to release this year, but there are certain releases that have gained immense popularity and generated enthusiasm among audience. One such eagerly awaited directorial venture-Fitoor by Abhishek Kapoor, starring Aditya Roy Kapur, Katrina Kaif and Tabu, will release on February 12. The film is an adaptation of Charles Dicken’s classic novel Great Expectations. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting’Abhishek Kapoor, an award winning writer-director, who has three prominent films to his credit, started his career as an actor but his acting career did not take off very well. But destiny had some different plans for him as after the success of Rock On, he won multiple awards including India’s Filmfare award for best story and prestigious National award for best Hindi film.Commenting on his acting career, Abhishek, who was recently in the national Capital for the promotion of Fitoor said: “I started my career as an actor but it did not take off very well after which there was a very dark space in my life. The transition period was very difficult for me. I had just stopped writing and after a few years, I produced my first feature film Aryan in 2006, which was based on the story of a boxer and his travails to keep his head high against all odds, through the storms of love, life and everything else in between as he attains self actualisation. Although the movie was not a hit on the box office but it is very close to my heart.” Also Read – Leslie doing new comedy special with NetflixFitoor, which set in Kashmir, is a passionate love story between Firdaus, played by Katrina Kaif and Noor, played by Aditya Roy kapur. Tabu will be seen playing the character of Begum, which is the Indian version of Miss Havisham’s character from the book. The reason why the movie has been set up in the backdrop of Kashmir was also revealed by Abhishek Kapoor. “I have grown up as a child by watching most romantic films set in Kashmir. Those movies left a mark on me and influenced me lot.  “Kashmir is a very beautiful hill station and my film’s story is also like that. Also for a very long duration nobody shot in Kashmir”, said the Rock On director. The movie has been produced by Disney UTV and Guy in the Sky Pictures. On his joint venture with UTV Disney, Abhishek commented, “Guy in the Sky Pictures is my company. I have good relations with UTV Disney and we have done Kai Po Che and now Fitoor together. We are very hopeful that this movie will do well and we hope to collaborate again in the near future.”Commenting on the movie, Abhishek said: “The film will showcase passionate love between the characters. This is the first time that I have done any love story, so it was a totally new experience for me. Although the movie is based on the novel but the storyline is quite different as we have done some modifications from our side.”“It is a story about love which is based on real emotions that everybody faces in their daily lives. We have worked very hard and we hope that people will enjoy it”, concluded Abhishek.last_img read more